← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Sat, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 55% | 63% | 1.66 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.40 | fair |
| Boavista win | 19% | 13% | 5.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 666.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1496.65 | 1736.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.90 | 1.58 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.89 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.65 |
| league points | 29.00 | 62.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 2.38 |
| state index | -0.44 | 1.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |