← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Sat, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belenenses win | 59% | 71% | 1.50 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 25% | 19% | 3.60 | fair |
| Beira Mar win | 16% | 11% | 5.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | Beira Mar |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1555.40 | 1424.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 38.06 | 7.05 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| league points | 43.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.65 | 0.73 |
| state index | 0.61 | -0.42 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |