← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Fri, Apr 27, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 44% | 33% | 2.05 | fair |
| Leiria win | 28% | 20% | 3.30 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 47% | 3.20 | value: +50% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | Leiria |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1304.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1511.97 | 1510.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.09 | -6.79 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| league points | 39.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.35 |
| state index | -0.05 | -0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |