← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Mon, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 64% | 74% | 1.40 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 24% | 20% | 3.75 | fair |
| Setubal win | 12% | 6% | 7.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | Setubal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 569.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1599.91 | 1422.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.75 | -7.16 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| league points | 39.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 0.76 |
| state index | 0.52 | -0.63 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |