← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Sun, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 65% | 64% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | 4.00 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 12% | 12% | 7.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 660.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1800.62 | 1593.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.97 | 53.41 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.50 |
| league points | 59.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 2.36 | 1.72 |
| state index | 1.38 | 1.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |