← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Sat, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 54% | 80% | 1.66 | value: +32% ⚠ |
| Draw | 26% | 13% | 3.50 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 19% | 7% | 4.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 294.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1520.78 | 1738.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.17 | -2.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| league points | 30.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 2.16 |
| state index | -0.70 | 1.06 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |