← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Fri, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Est Amadora win | 39% | 39% | 2.40 | fair |
| Boavista win | 33% | 36% | 2.87 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 29% | 24% | 3.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Est Amadora | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1451.35 | 1506.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -41.99 | -13.42 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| league points | 25.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.16 |
| state index | -1.05 | -0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |