← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Mon, Apr 16, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 63% | 73% | 1.45 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 24% | 21% | 3.75 | fair |
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 13% | 6% | 7.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 289.00 | 562.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1682.61 | 1550.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.02 | -0.17 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| league points | 53.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 2.21 | 1.58 |
| state index | 0.98 | 0.05 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |