← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Sun, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 59% | 53% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.75 | fair |
| Aves win | 16% | 23% | 5.75 | value: +30% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | Aves |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1508.23 | 1427.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.86 | -0.38 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.05 |
| league points | 32.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 0.67 |
| state index | 0.14 | -0.51 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |