← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Sat, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belenenses win | 58% | 63% | 1.55 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 3.75 | fair |
| Est Amadora win | 17% | 14% | 5.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | Est Amadora |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1551.35 | 1461.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 49.23 | -22.34 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| league points | 40.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.04 |
| state index | 0.72 | -0.72 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |