← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Mon, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 62% | 77% | 1.50 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 25% | 15% | 3.75 | fair |
| Beira Mar win | 13% | 9% | 7.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Beira Mar | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 282.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1414.34 | 1688.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.08 | 24.26 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| league points | 15.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.65 | 2.26 |
| state index | -1.08 | 1.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |