← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Sat, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 45% | 53% | 2.05 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.25 | fair |
| Naval win | 27% | 20% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Naval |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1492.09 | 1473.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.22 | -3.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| league points | 29.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.26 |
| state index | -0.50 | -0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |