← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Sat, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leiria win | 40% | 40% | 2.30 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 31% | 26% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 34% | 3.10 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leiria | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1511.08 | 1540.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.31 | 49.66 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| league points | 31.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.61 |
| state index | -0.35 | 0.78 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |