← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Sat, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Est Amadora win | 44% | 59% | 2.15 | value: +27% |
| Draw | 28% | 20% | 3.20 | fair |
| Academica win | 27% | 21% | 3.60 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Est Amadora | Academica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1464.84 | 1413.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.12 | -38.17 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| league points | 24.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 0.91 |
| state index | -0.59 | -1.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |