← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Sat, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boavista win | 38% | 39% | 2.35 | fair |
| Aves win | 33% | 32% | 2.75 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aves | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1415.92 | 1519.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.49 | 12.72 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| league points | 13.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.57 | 1.22 |
| state index | -1.06 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |