← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Fri, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 76% | 81% | 1.20 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 16% | 6.00 | fair |
| Setubal win | 8% | 3% | 17.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Setubal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 644.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1722.09 | 1416.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.96 | 15.27 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.85 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.10 |
| league points | 53.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 2.30 | 0.83 |
| state index | 1.09 | -0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |