← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Sun, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Setubal win | 41% | 35% | 2.25 | fair |
| Est Amadora win | 30% | 30% | 3.25 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 35% | 3.20 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Setubal | Est Amadora |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1431.41 | 1467.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.65 | -6.78 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| league points | 16.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 12.96 |
| season ppg | 0.73 | 1.09 |
| state index | -0.70 | -0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |