← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Sun, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naval win | 39% | 37% | 2.40 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 32% | 28% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 35% | 3.20 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Naval | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1474.10 | 1516.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.62 | -0.75 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.40 |
| league points | 28.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 11.96 | 15.96 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.41 |
| state index | -0.41 | -0.01 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |