← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Sun, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 38% | 32% | 2.45 | fair |
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 33% | 33% | 2.87 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 35% | 3.20 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 547.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1502.51 | 1547.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.68 | -4.82 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| league points | 29.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 11.96 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.59 |
| state index | -0.22 | -0.05 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |