← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Sun, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Academica win | 38% | 26% | 2.37 | fair |
| Leiria win | 33% | 44% | 2.80 | value: +24% |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Academica | Leiria |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1412.69 | 1512.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.83 | -9.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| league points | 20.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 13.96 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 1.36 |
| state index | -1.17 | -0.39 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |