← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Sat, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belenenses win | 59% | 63% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 22% | 3.60 | fair |
| Aves win | 15% | 16% | 6.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | Aves |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1535.10 | 1421.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.82 | 1.77 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.05 |
| league points | 34.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| rest days | 12.96 | 12.96 |
| season ppg | 1.55 | 0.59 |
| state index | 0.46 | -0.95 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |