← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Tue, Mar 20, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 56% | 63% | 1.65 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.60 | fair |
| Naval win | 19% | 12% | 5.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | Naval |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 535.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1585.72 | 1504.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.42 | -15.61 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.05 |
| league points | 32.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 1.33 |
| state index | 0.32 | -0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |