← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Sun, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leiria win | 57% | 71% | 1.60 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 26% | 22% | 3.60 | fair |
| Setubal win | 18% | 7% | 5.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leiria | Setubal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1517.01 | 1395.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.63 | -9.89 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| league points | 29.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 0.71 |
| state index | -0.26 | -0.93 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |