← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Sun, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aves win | 40% | 43% | 2.30 | fair |
| Academica win | 32% | 32% | 2.85 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aves | Academica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1423.36 | 1410.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.34 | -14.28 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| league points | 12.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.57 | 0.90 |
| state index | -0.95 | -0.83 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |