← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Sat, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 51% | 50% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.30 | fair |
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 21% | 20% | 4.33 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Sporting Clube de Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 624.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1734.79 | 1668.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.55 | 2.89 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 1.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.45 |
| league points | 52.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.48 | 2.05 |
| state index | 1.41 | 0.87 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |