← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Sun, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Setubal win | 46% | 42% | 1.95 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.30 | fair |
| Aves win | 26% | 28% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Setubal | Aves |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1396.58 | 1422.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.03 | -4.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| league points | 14.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.70 | 0.55 |
| state index | -0.81 | -1.01 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |