← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Sun, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 55% | 68% | 1.66 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 26% | 21% | 3.60 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 18% | 12% | 5.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 618.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1508.94 | 1729.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.54 | -12.53 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.73 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.55 |
| league points | 28.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 2.45 |
| state index | -0.18 | 1.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |