← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Sun, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Academica win | 40% | 44% | 2.30 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 32% | 30% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Academica | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1257.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1452.82 | 1529.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.83 | 18.58 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| league points | 19.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 0.95 | 1.45 |
| state index | -0.70 | 0.12 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |