← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Sat, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 66% | 65% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 29% | 4.20 | value: +21% |
| Est Amadora win | 12% | 7% | 8.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Portugal | Est Amadora |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1662.01 | 1493.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.39 | 14.95 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| league points | 40.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| state index | 0.64 | 0.01 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |