← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Mon, Mar 5, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boavista win | 44% | 43% | 2.10 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 29% | 27% | 3.25 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1522.19 | 1502.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.62 | 2.57 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| league points | 23.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.42 |
| state index | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |