← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Sun, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Est Amadora win | 40% | 48% | 2.25 | value: +8% |
| Maritimo win | 32% | 27% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Est Amadora | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1484.09 | 1518.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.64 | -0.98 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| league points | 21.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.47 |
| state index | 0.02 | -0.02 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |