← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Sun, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beira Mar win | 38% | 46% | 2.40 | value: +12% |
| Naval win | 33% | 23% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Beira Mar | Naval |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1428.58 | 1465.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.10 | -12.63 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.10 |
| league points | 13.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.68 | 1.26 |
| state index | -0.60 | -0.58 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |