← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Sat, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 62% | 60% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.75 | fair |
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 13% | 14% | 7.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 610.00 | 518.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1724.98 | 1550.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.71 | -6.61 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.35 |
| league points | 46.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 2.42 | 1.63 |
| state index | 1.26 | 0.04 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |