← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Sat, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 62% | 72% | 1.50 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 24% | 20% | 4.00 | fair |
| Aves win | 14% | 8% | 8.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aves | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 245.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1427.55 | 1670.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.96 | 30.22 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.50 |
| league points | 11.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 0.58 | 2.21 |
| state index | -0.81 | 1.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |