← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Fri, Mar 2, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 55% | 56% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.50 | fair |
| Setubal win | 18% | 16% | 5.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | Setubal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1248.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1502.38 | 1402.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.98 | -7.35 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.05 |
| league points | 26.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.37 | 0.74 |
| state index | 0.10 | -0.76 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |