← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Mon, Feb 26, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 57% | 51% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.60 | fair |
| Est Amadora win | 18% | 22% | 5.00 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | Est Amadora |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 513.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1590.51 | 1471.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.14 | 25.35 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| league points | 28.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 1.17 |
| state index | 0.29 | 0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |