← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Mon, Feb 26, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 43% | 50% | 2.15 | value: +7% |
| Leiria win | 29% | 28% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 22% | 3.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Leiria |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1509.31 | 1530.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.01 | -0.91 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| league points | 25.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 1.56 |
| state index | -0.51 | 0.11 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |