← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Sun, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 62% | 69% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 20% | 3.80 | fair |
| Beira Mar win | 13% | 12% | 7.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Beira Mar | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 604.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1437.42 | 1716.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.90 | -13.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.41 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.50 |
| league points | 13.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 0.72 | 2.39 |
| state index | -0.28 | 1.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |