← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Sat, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naval win | 40% | 43% | 2.25 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 31% | 31% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Naval | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1476.70 | 1490.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.78 | -18.51 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| league points | 24.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| state index | -0.31 | -0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |