← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Sat, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Academica win | 39% | 54% | 2.40 | value: +28% |
| Boavista win | 33% | 20% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Academica | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1451.98 | 1506.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.25 | 5.71 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| league points | 19.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.11 |
| state index | -0.30 | -0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |