← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Fri, Feb 23, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 78% | 76% | 1.16 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 17% | 6.00 | value: +4% |
| Aves win | 7% | 6% | 12.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Portugal | Aves |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1671.49 | 1420.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.35 | -19.62 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | — |
| league points | 38.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 2.11 | 0.56 |
| state index | 0.91 | -1.09 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |