← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Mon, Feb 19, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belenenses win | 48% | 56% | 1.90 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.25 | fair |
| Academica win | 24% | 19% | 3.80 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | Academica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1504.28 | 1438.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.10 | -21.87 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| league points | 24.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 0.94 |
| state index | 0.04 | -0.63 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |