← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Sun, Feb 18, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Est Amadora win | 49% | 59% | 1.83 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.25 | fair |
| Beira Mar win | 23% | 17% | 4.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Est Amadora | Beira Mar |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1494.29 | 1434.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.90 | -4.54 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | — |
| league points | 20.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 0.71 |
| state index | 0.41 | -0.61 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.20 |