← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Sun, Feb 18, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 41% | 40% | 2.25 | fair |
| Aves win | 32% | 34% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aves | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1419.53 | 1510.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.16 | -22.48 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.20 |
| league points | 9.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| season ppg | 0.53 | 1.41 |
| state index | -0.93 | -0.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |