← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Fri, Feb 16, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 73% | 77% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 19% | 5.00 | fair |
| Naval win | 9% | 5% | 13.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Naval |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 595.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1710.11 | 1482.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.59 | 17.66 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.10 |
| league points | 40.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| season ppg | 2.35 | 1.41 |
| state index | 0.97 | 0.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |