← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Sun, Feb 4, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belenenses win | 36% | 32% | 2.50 | fair |
| Setubal win | 35% | 36% | 2.55 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 33% | 3.20 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Setubal | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1405.49 | 1495.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.49 | 26.02 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.30 |
| league points | 12.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 1.31 |
| state index | -1.09 | 0.12 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.80 |