← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Sun, Feb 4, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naval win | 53% | 59% | 1.75 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.30 | fair |
| Academica win | 20% | 14% | 4.60 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Naval | Academica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1496.33 | 1424.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.97 | -44.02 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| league points | 24.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 0.81 |
| state index | 0.04 | -1.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |