← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Sun, Feb 4, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 48% | 51% | 1.90 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.25 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 24% | 21% | 3.80 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1222.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1555.62 | 1522.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.62 | 11.87 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| league points | 23.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.50 |
| state index | 0.03 | -0.04 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |