← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Sun, Feb 4, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leiria win | 40% | 30% | 2.37 | fair |
| Beira Mar win | 30% | 31% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 39% | 3.10 | value: +20% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Beira Mar | Leiria |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1422.67 | 1532.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.47 | 8.43 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.30 |
| league points | 9.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 0.56 | 1.56 |
| state index | -1.38 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |