← Primeira Liga 2006-07 · Sat, Feb 3, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 64% | 72% | 1.44 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 24% | 19% | 3.80 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 12% | 8% | 8.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Portugal | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1735.72 | 1562.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.65 | -18.81 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.69 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| league points | 34.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 2.13 | 1.50 |
| state index | 0.90 | 0.06 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |